Country UpdateDecember 02, 2020
- Costa Rica
- Czech Republic
- Dominican Republic
- El Salvador
- Ivory Coast
- Saudi Arabia
- South Africa
- South Korea
- Sri Lanka
- Trinidad And Tobago
Market Pricesecuador sovereign
|ECUA 0 1/2 07/31/30||62.75||63.75||12.24||1336||+26||2030-07-31|
|ECUA 0 07/31/30||44.90||45.90||8.34||1159||-6||2030-07-31|
|ECUA 0 1/2 07/31/35||54.75||55.75||10.94||1061||+0||2035-07-31|
|ECUA 0 1/2 07/31/40||49.85||50.85||10.41||962||-1||2040-07-31|
Market Mapecuador sovereign
We take a comprehensive look at political risk indicators in a group of Emerging Market countries, trying to identify potential sources of conflict.
We analyze the electoral scenarios in the four Latin American nations that will have electoral processes during the end of 2020 and all of 2021.
We review the scenarios in the parliamentarians of Argentina and El Salvador, we comment on the electoral process that will take place in Venezuela, and we review the perspectives of the presidential elections in Ecuador.
We evaluated the World Bank’s governance indicators for our sample countries in 2019 and share our view of thes...
A new prepaid oil loan with Chinese multinationals has been in the works since late 2019.
The deal hasn’t been signed as oil production has decreased, making it difficult for Ecuador to meet its past commitments, let alone this new one.
In September, the oil shipments required to service previously contracted loans represented 68% of oil production and 92% of exports.
Oil shipments tied to debt service in 2021 will be equivalent to 190 tbd, 45% of September exports.
While uncertainty about the outcome of the elections in the next year increases, Ecuador’s curve continues to invert.
Scholarly research shows that domestic debt grew as a share of total debt in EMs during the first decade of the century, but defaults on domestic creditors still decreased significantly.
A default to domestic investors usually carries a higher political and economic cost than a default to foreign investors.
Domestic debt is usually concentrated in local financial institutions, such as banks, insurance companies and pension funds.
Historically, polls in Ecuador tend to have average error margins surrounding the 3 pp.
Being 3 months away from presidential elections can increase the error margin against the final results, as our historical comparison shows.
Current vote intention levels for each candidate, amongst the different available polls, show high dispersion levels.
Adding high levels of undecided voters to our accuracy assessment, we believe any poll-induced movement in the sovereign curve may be deemed as premature.
Both Argentina and Ecuador have been underperforming after their restructuring, with Argentina suffering significantly more.
At this point, given the significant increase in the spread between both curves, we still think both credits are cheap, but find Argentina more attractive.
In our view negative factors in Argentina such as a problematic official devaluation, inflation, increased strain on skinny reserve buffers are all already discounted in current prices.
On Argentina, we think much of the pessimist expectations on the Fernández administration’s policy-making are already priced in, leaving room f...
In the new EFF program, the IMF will push for a fiscal reform that aligns Ecuador with its regional peers.
In Ecuador, tax revenues represent 12% of the GDP, compared to the Latin America average of 18%.
Ecuador’s VAT (12%) is the second lowest in the region, only behind Paraguay’s (10%). The average is 14%.
Only Bolivia is above Ecuador in total expenditure, with 35% and 27% of GDP, respectively.
The IMF wants to increase the VAT rate up to 15% until end-September 2021 and reduce wage bill in the middle-term.
We maintain our view that the risk/return on the bonds is attractive, and favor ECUA 0.5 ...
The COVID19 crisis could open the door to new sovereign restructurings
In the last decade, sovereign default events carried out for political reasons have increased by 50%
Suriname and Ecuador, with previous complications, this year saw their position even more deteriorated due to the COVID19 crisis and announced restructuring
On the horizon El Salvador, Angola and Sri Lanka are the countries that generate the most concern of those followed by EMFI
An imminent alliance was formed by the center-right parties PSC and CREO.
The electoral body finally officially confirmed that Correa will not participate.
None of the candidates has an absolute majority (over 50%), so at this moment it looks like we will have a second round.
Part of the review process of the IMF consisted of interviews with all the presidential runners.
Guillermo Lasso would be the most market-friendly option, but from these initial declarations, it looks like Arauz is trying to soften his image.
With the restructuring operations in Argentina and Ecuador having finally settled, we look into the new bonds in search of attractive investment opportunities.
Low coupons in relation to yields result in very low cash prices, which makes both sets of bonds attractive versus other comparable sovereign bonds.
There is a distinct lack of carry, but it is offset by a very strong pull-to-par effect, which means that bond prices can rise very quickly.
In Ecuador, we find a very compelling combination of high potential returns if yields compress and limited downside if they deteriorate, which makes the credit a strong BUY f...
Pressure grows on China, as one of the world's main creditors, to enter the DSSI without restrictions
The terms of China's agreements with emerging or frontier nations are extremely aggressive compared to members of the Paris Club
One issue to keep an eye on is the participation of Chinese state banks in the renegotiations, as these entities hold about 75% of the country's total debt
Chinese authorities have spoken with 20 countries about the DSSI, and it has approved relief for an amount close to USD 3 bn for 10 countries
Angola and Zambia are the countries that most urgently need to address a restructu...
Despite that oil production has rebounded and oil prices have recovered some ground as well, current oil revenues are far from enough to offset the damage done in the previous months.
We expect the fiscal deficit to be USD 7.0 bn (7.3% of GDP), with a primary deficit of USD 5.1 bn (5.3%).
With amortizations equal to USD 4.1 bn, financing needs are equivalent to USD 11.2 bn, representing 11.6% of GDP.
As of July, the government has covered 41% of the financing needs through multilaterals disbursements and domestic financing.
With the pending disbursements from the IMF, that amount to USD 4 bn, and if the government f...
Ecuador’s primary elections finally ended yesterday with the presentation of the 18 presidential candidates together with their running mates.
There will be many underdogs in the contest.
The only familiar faces are Guillermo Lasso for president and Rafael Correa for Vicepresident.
There is a long way to go until February 7 and anything can happen. However, at first sight, we don’t believe an AP reelection is likely.
According to the electoral organism (CNE), the primary elections will be held between August 9 and 23.
The only political party that has already defined its candidate is CREO (center-right), with Guillermo Lasso confirming that he will be running for the third time.
The ruling party Alianza País (AP, center) has not confirmed its candidate yet, with former VP Otto Sonnenholzner being the person best positioned to run as a continuity candidate.
If he ends up running, Sonnenholzner will have to put more effort into distancing himself from Moreno, as the latest CEDATOS poll shows the president’s approval rate at...
Standstills have been the talk of the town since March, but only Ecuador, Suriname and Belize have used them so far.
We look at the similarities and differences between the three cases in order to understand what each country intends to do with them.
BUY Ecuador: Restructuring negotiations are already very advanced and we think the bonds will have significant upside after a deal is closed.
SELL Belize: There is willingness to continue paying after the standstill, but their repayment record speaks for itself.
HOLD Suriname: The outgoing administration negotiated a standstill on their 2023 bond, but we don’t kno...
On Monday 13, two large bondholder groups – which are in control of blocking positions – issued a joint counter-proposal to Ecuador’s opening bid.
The counter-proposal involves a higher face value haircut but conditioned to an IMF agreement. It also involves a more front-loaded interest payment schedule.
Our estimates indicate that Ecuador would have to pay an additional USD 1.87 bn between 2022 and 2027 under the counter-proposal, but would have to pay USD 561 mn less afterward.
We think that the counter-proposal is broadly reasonable and the 2025 and 2030 targets for GFN and debt-to-GDP ratio would rem...
According to the Foreign Trade Ministry, for the period between March 16 and May 24, economic losses related to the pandemic amounted to USD 14.1 bn.
The economy shrank by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2020.
Total losses in tax collection in main activities amount to USD 518 mn.
The Central Bank expects the GDP to contract between 7.3% and 9.6% this year. EMFI Securities estimates a fall of 7.9%.
On Monday, Ecuador announced that it has an agreement “in principle” with a bondholder group in possession of 50% of the total outstanding.
The proposed terms would imply an average recovery value of 49.7 cents on the dollar when valued at a 12% exit yield.
The government would exchange 10 old bonds into 4 new bonds that would feature lower step-up coupons, a moderate 8.9% principal haircut, and principal repayment in 5 equal semi-annual installments.
We think the offer positively reflects the Lenín Moreno administration’s market-friendly approach to the restructuring negotiations.
36 of the 77 eligible countries have applied for the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).
Chinese debt has grown significantly, but has remained highly opaque. The recently released World Bank dataset is a big step forward in this regard.
Countries that would benefit the most from DSSI owe on average 42% of their 2020-2021 and 41.1% of their 2022-2025 debt service to China.
So far, DSSI only extends for payments scheduled for 2020, but there are many voices calling for an extension to 2021.
To put it bluntly, a program of debt relief or a generalized standstill on official debt would go nowhere wit...
In this report you will find:
Background: Legacy in Peril, an assesment of Lenín Moreno's presidential period.
The Word on the Street, a recount of declarations on the restructuring from the administration's allies and enemies.
Moving Forward: Debt Sustainability, our own in-house debt sustainability analysis.
The Offer and the Deal, our expectations for a potential exchange offer and projected recovery values.
On June 3, President Lenín Moreno announced that Ecuador will report a USD 12 bn deficit because of the plunge in oil prices and lower tax collection.
Ecuador’s oil production reached 333 tbd in May, a MoM recovery of 60.2%, but still representing a decrease of 36.8% compared to the same month in 2019.
April exports reached a historical low for at least 15 years, just USD 74 mn (5,261 kb).
While the country has less and less oxygen, the situation forced the government to issue a new presidential decree on May 19 which practically remove subsidies on automotive sector.
We estimate that subsidies expendit...
Low interest rates and the hunt for yields of the last decade has left broad swaths of EMs overindebted and vulnerable.
The first half of 2020 is not yet over and we already have 3 countries in default.
The recent record of most defaults on Eurobonds on a single year was 4 in 2017, so 2020 is not far from setting new records.
Eurobond restructuring processes are usually among the most complicated due to the variety of holders and the different interests they represent.
Suriname, Zambia, Belize, Sri Lanka and Angola are in the most risk to engross the default-statistic for the year.
May was one of those months that feels like a year. We had a default in Argentina, a tense election in Suriname, a deadly pandemic still spreading around the world, and yet, it was a good month for emerging market debt
Our EMFI Core Index went up for the first time in 6 months. The biggest winners were Argentina, Angola and Ecuador, while Venezuela, Suriname and Sri Lanka were among the negative outliers that went against the general risk-on mood
The macro and fiscal situations deteriorated further for all countries covered, and we chronicled the dramatic economic crash in our Country Reports
We’ve been preparing fo...
As of May 22, 8 countries have at least one USD-denominated sovereign bond trading below 50 cents on the dollar.
The Covid-19 crisis could lead to a new wave of sovereign defaults from prolonged confinements.
We discuss the worst debt restructuring events so far this century.
Argentina 2005 remains at the forefront of these events if we exclude the exceptional cases of countries at war or leaving them.
The countries with the most compromised solvencies that could generate problems with their debt are Angola and somewhat behind, Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Egypt and Pakistan.
A pandemic year was on the cards, the dramatic magnitude of its effects was not.
The global economy is expected to shrink by 3% in 2020, but leading indicators are pointing to a deeper downturn.
Emerging countries with a history of volatile economic growth will show the worst results.
Some economies may experience a period of above-trend growth during the recovery, although the level of GDP will remain, in most cases, below the pre-virus level.
The national tragedy, triggered by the coronavirus, looks like the perfect chance for the opposition to win space in this electoral run, as they point out the weaknesses of Moreno’s administration.
With the approval of the Humanitarian Aid Law, it looks like the ruling party (AP) still counts with CREO votes and some votes from the multi-alliance minor parties.
However, several assembly members from that multi-alliance minor parties migrated to the anti-Lenín position, joining correísmo and PSC, harming the support to Moreno within the National Assembly.
Executive Secretary from Correa’s party, V...
Pakistan is the weakest among the EMFI Countries, in terms of the spread of the virus. Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Barbados are the strongest, with a controlled increase rate and a persistent lockdown.
The countries that we evaluate with the worst economic performance year-to-date are Angola, Venezuela, Lebanon, Barbados, El Salvador, Ecuador, Sri Lanka, Argentina and Suriname.
Since the end of 2019, the local currency has depreciated -70.5% in Venezuela, -52.4% in Lebanon, -43.5% in Argentina and -40% in Suriname.
El Salvador and Argentina launched the most ambitious fiscal program among our sample, which will cost 6% and 5.6...
The safest rung of EM hard-currency sovereign bonds fell on March but has already retraced all their losses.
Mid-quality EMs plunged over March and have risen somehow since, but haven’t fully recovered.
This segment has seen a 320 bps rise in average yield in 2020, going from an average 6.1% yield to 9.3%.
We believe high-yield bonds in our mid-quality group have significant upside if they avert a credit event.
After a dry March, markets are again open for fresh bonds, but only from relatively high-quality issuers.
We identified 23 countries that have at least one bond yielding above 10%, a threshold usually associated with sovereign distress.
Among the most distressed credits, first-time defaulter Lebanon is trading between 16.3 and 18.3 cents on the dollar, on account of slow progress on a reform plan.
Argentina’s debt goes in a range of 23.2 to 34.6 cents on the dollar, days after the Fernández administration’s aggressive mid-April proposal to bondholders was publicly rejected by 3 creditor groups.
Ecuador trades between 28.8 and 33.6, after negotiating a coupon standstill that will give the country until Augus...
The Central Bank dramatically updated fiscal figures for the non-financial public sector for 2018 and 2019.
After the changes, the fiscal deficit went from 1.2% of GDP to 3.1% of GDP in 2018, while the primary surplus disappeared (from a 1.3% surplus to a deficit of 0.7% of GDP).
The Ministry of Finance explained that the changes were caused by decentralized autonomous governments, social security entity and Petroecuador.
For 2019, the fiscal deficit was initially estimated at 1.6% of GDP, together with a primary surplus of 1% of GDP.
With the new execution, the fiscal deficit increased to 2.8% of GDP, while the pri...
On April 15, the G20 agreed on a standstill for bilateral debt service during 2020. Nonetheless, the agreement only applies to IDA-eligible countries. The suspension will be NPV-neutral and will involve repayment over 4 years, including a 1-year grace period.
Multilaterals haven’t found a way to implement a similar standstill. In fact, Fitch Ratings warned them that joining in on the G20 standstill could result in rating downgrades if not appropriately compensated by shareholder countries.
On aggregate, official creditors account for almost 90% of the debt of low-income, and 60% of that of lower middle-income countries, b...
The authorities are dealing with low oil prices and lower tax collection while they are also facing a health crisis triggered by the coronavirus outbreak.
The outlook complicated worsened even more after the landslides caused by torrential rains on April 7th that affected two pipelines that jointly transport 96.1% Ecuador’s oil output
Lenín Moreno submitted a draft law that contemplates a temporary contribution from private and public workers. These resources will be used to relieve the crisis.
On April 8th, an official statement where the government requested a postponement in interest payments to their bond...
Two weeks ago, we singled out some early calls for a generalized global debt moratorium in our Global Strategy Viewpoint: Force Majeure. The idea has gained significant traction and is becoming one of the main themes in economic and financial discussion.
While we don’t think a generalized moratorium on commercial bonded debt is likely to succeed, investors should be aware that it is a growing theme and bondholders will probably be under increased pressure to accept attempts at restructuring bond terms.
There are some indications that China is a significant roadblock for the IMF-World Bank initiative for a bilateral debt m...
Minister Martínez has been very emphatic in saying that the country needs to obtain relief from financial pressure for the rest of the year and that retaining access to external financing is a key concern of the administration.
A postponement or outright pardon of 2020 coupon payments would amount to USD 1,680 mn if the coupons on all bonds are included or USD 1,418 mn if the 4 coupons already in grace periods are excluded.
Bonds, trading between 29 and 35 cents on the dollar, are currently pricing in strong expectations of a near-term default with a haircut around 70%. These prices are on average 59% down from barely on...
Ecuador's bonds recovered between 5 and 6 cents per dollar on Monday on the expectation that the proposal to defer payments for the notes of 2022, 2025 and 2030 for a year will prosper.
In the event that the quick proposal advances there would be a significant recovery of the debt from the range from the current values of 22-36 dollars.
Ecuador's bond contracts allow the modification of reserved matters in three ways.
The country can request a collective deferment on coupons that expire this year or seek a grace period for private bonds.
The deadline to obtain a response from the bondholders is next Ap...
The COVID-19 crisis is raising a difficult question of public policy for emerging market economies with low fiscal space, which have to reconcile economic and social policy with debt service.
The relation between liquidity and solvency problems is not straight-forward: the COVID-19 shock, which presents liquidity challenges first and foremost, can unearth underlying solvency problems and can also turn liquidity problems into solvency ones if improperly managed.
We’re already seeing some early calls for an international debt holiday to exempt countries from paying during the COVID-19 crisis. Multilateral organizations are ...
The current crisis will translate into twin demand and supply shocks, with an oil price war on top of it.
The demand shock driven by declines in the world’s main trading partners will particularly affect emerging markets which are characterized by low diversification of exports and production.
Supply chains around the world have been disrupted by factory closures, first in China and now in Europe and the US.
The markets most exposed to a potential slowdown are the major commodity exporters: Venezuela, Ecuador, Angola and the markets most reliant on Chinese and US tourism.
In most EMFI countries the tourism act...
Our EMFI Core Index has fallen 27.6% year-to-date (YTD), while Our EMFI Expanded Index has fallen 19.2%. The last two weeks have been particularly bad, with consecutive 10% declines.
Unsurprisingly, countries heavily reliant on oil have suffered the most. Among our 34-country group, almost every oil-reliant one has fallen more than the 18.3% median.
The second thing that jumps to the eye is that the riskier countries have fared proportionally worse than relatively safer countries, when excluding oil-dependent countries.
We’re also seeing several countries crossing the 10% yield threshold, usually associated with dis...
The outbreak of the Coronavirus, as well as the “oil price war” between Saudi Arabia and Russia have triggered almost complete certainty that a global recession is coming over the next quarter.
Some economists are expecting a 2-quarter rolling recession, but there is potential for the downturn to extend further if the virus reemerges after activity is unfrozen.
Emerging market debt is taking a beating in 2020 so far. The countries we cover registered a median 14.3% fall year-to-date, with the worst performer doing as bad as 60.3% down (Ecuador) and 38.5% down (Angola).
We compare indicators on 4 major categori...
In a national broadcast last night, President Lenín Moreno announced several economic measures to cope with the economic shock caused by the collapse in oil prices.
At first sight, this package looks pretty ambitious when compared to the cuts that were budgeted originally.
Our fiscal estimates for 2020 take the assumption of a certain resistance to the austerity policies and an oil price of 40.1 USD/bl. The fiscal deficit would be 2.4% of GDP, above the budgeted level.
However, if we make the assumption that the National Assembly will cooperate with the reforms, the deficit goes down to 1.8% of GDP.
Given the coronavirus outbreak and the political environment going into the 2021 elections, an optimistic scenario for Moreno’s administration seems very unlikely to materialize.
The Fund projects an increase of 8.6% in revenues in 2020 and a slight reduction of 1.5% in expenditures. The forecasts look unreachable for several reasons.
The remarkable decline in oil prices due to coronavirus outbreak: 2020’s budget projected oil price at 51.3 USD/bl, while WTI currently trades at 32.87 USD/bl.
This brings down our revenues estimations by 7%.
In the second place, there has been no progress regarding the fue...
February was a bad month for EM debt, as the market went into risk-off mode pushing bonds to backtrack on the gains made over the previous two months. 11 out of the 15 countries in our EMFI Core Index fell on the month, while the weighted index itself fell 5.8%, retracing below December levels.
Our Expanded Index ex. Core confirms February’s sell-off, registering declines in 21 out of 25 countries and an aggregated fall of 0.9%. Nonetheless, this fall is significantly below that of our EMFI Core Index.
Our selection of countries is clearly biased towards some large and risky high-yielders, which translates to an expectabl...
Ecuador's bonds remain the second worst performers of the year amongst sovereign issuers, only behind Lebanon.
ECUADOR 9.5 2030 has plummeted 20.4% YTD, with its yield to maturity increasing 388 bp since last year, going from 10.5% to 14.4% today.
ECUADOR 10.75 2022 shows the highest yield to maturity of the curve with 19.9%, followed by ECUADOR 8.75 2023 with 16.7%, due to the high risks associated with payments from 2022 on.
The accelerated decline in Ecuador’s credit rating and the fall in oil prices in 2020 are the main causes of downward pressure across the curve.
In turn, the credit rating cuts were ...
Ecuador issued a USD 400 mn social bond, which was bought by a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) incorporated in Luxembourg. The SPV, in turn has issued two bonds, which are available for trading: ECUASO 0 2035 and ECUASO 2.6 2035.
The zero-coupon bond is junior to ECUASO 2.6 2035 under the joint waterfall payment scheme. Furthermore, the interest-bearing bond enjoys an Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) guarantee, which the zero-coupon bond doesn’t have.
ECUASO 2.6 2035 has a low 3.1% Internal Rate of Return (IRR), on account of its favorable seniority conditions, while ECUASO 0 2035 bond offers a much more attractive 14....
The departure of the 19 CREO assembly members from the legislative agreement on January 31, which provided a majority to the ruling party, brings tension within the AP ranks as they now have a deficit of at least 11 votes to pass laws in the remainder of the period. This number could increase if legislators from the BIN and BADI benches decide to withdraw as well from the alliance that was formed in May 2019. In that scenario, the government would need 32 votes from other parties to be able to pass any bill. The possibility of withdrawal of more AP assembly members furthers complicate the situation.
This scenario is delicate, given t...
On February 21 of last year, Moreno announced that Ecuador had reached a USD 4.2 bn staff-level agreement with the IMF and, on March 11, the Executive Board of the IMF officially approved the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement with the country.
IMF assistance fell short and the government chose to carry out liability management to repurchase the 2020 bonds in June. Similarly, on September 24, Ecuador tapped the markets again with a 5 and 10-year bond issue for USD 2 bn. With these operations, the government exceeded the amount established in the 2019 budget for financing through bonds, which was at USD 1,750 mn, closing the yea...
At the end of the afternoon of December 17, the Plenary of the National Assembly did not obtain the votes required to ratify the 17 observations that had been made to the 2020 Budget draft, so the new version sent by the president, Lenín Moreno, on December 8, enters into force automatically by operation of Law.
The Plenary required 91 votes to approve the motion of Esteban Albornoz, president of the Economic Development Commission, who proposed to approve the document sent by Moreno but keeping the 17 observations that the Legislature had made. The proposal only obtained 65 votes in favor, while 27 negatives and 27 abstention...
After a debate that lasted for five hours, Ecuadorian legislators approved the tax reform estimated to raise over USD 500 mn in 2020. The National Assembly approved the bill with 83 votes in favor, 8 against and 37 abstentions. The text will now pass to the Executive branch who will have until January 9 to analyze the content and accept the representatives revision or propose new changes.
With the approval of this set of measures, it is expected that the IMF Board of Directors will take it as one step further of Moreno’s administration in the path towards fiscal consolidation, after October’s repeal of the elimination of ...
The Ministry of Finance announced through a statement addressed to the Stock Exchanges of Quito and Guayaquil the issuance of domestic law bonds in the domestic market worth USD 1,936 mn. Such issuances intend to partially finance the 2019-2020 investment program along with other investment programs and projects, according to the document dated November 28.
On November 28, the National Assembly returned the 2020 Draft Budget to the Executive branch with 20 observations. The Executive has until December 8 to send a new document or insist on the original version.
On Friday, November 29, the first debate on the tax reform proposal...
On November 20, a reduced version of the Economic Growth Law was submitted to the National Assembly. The new draft only includes reforms related to the tax system, therefore, the estimated increase in tax collection decreased from USD 730 mn, in the previous draft, to USD 540 mn, in this one.
As we mentioned, the executive's strategy in this second attempt was based on: 1) simplifying the law, leaving aside controversial points of past discussions 2) conducting direct prior discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the assembly benches to reach agreements with the parties. This strategy is a change of route: given Moreno&rs...
On the night of November 17, President Lenín Moreno announced on a radio and television address that on November 19 a new economic growth bill will be submitted. The speech was made just two hours after the National Assembly decided to reject the Economic Growth Law draft.
The approval of a second draft appears difficult at this point. The Moreno administration seems incapable of carrying out the fiscal reforms agreed upon as part of the IMF program, since it has not been successful to do so either through a presidential decree or through the National Assembly.
This is reflected in the inverted yield curve. The impact wa...
After three sessions and 71 interventions of the lawmakers, the first debate of the Economic Growth Law officially ended on November 7. The draft includes tax reforms that would allow the government to raise USD 700 mn in additional resources, according to finance ministry estimates, and reforms to increase After the Central Bank’s autonomy.
The second debate will take place in a single session. The voting process could be for the full text of the law or by sections. Likewise, by decision of the Parliament, the draft may be dismissed. The Assembly has until Sunday November 17 to make a final decision.
We consider unlikely...
The ministry estimates gross financing needs for 2020 at USD 6.5 bn (5.9% of GDP).
The budget does not include any amounts on domestic or external bond indebtment, but does include USD 2.6 bn in multilateral loans, USD 3.7 bn in loans by the domestic private financial sector, USD 202.5 mn in bilateral loans and USD 18.7 mn in loans by the public financial sector.
The exclusion of external bond issuances from the budget is understandable, given the significant increase in sovereign risk after the October protests.
After eleven days of protests, Lenín Moreno’s administration caved in on protesters’ demands and agreed to repeal Decree Nº 883, which eliminated subsidies on low-octane gasoline and diesel. After the withdrawal, the government and CONAIE agreed to work together and create substituting legislation, which would supposedly include compensatory measures.
In our view, the government can take one of three possible approaches to re-implement the elimination of subsidies. The first one would be an outright elimination of subsidies in tandem with compensatory direct cash transfers; the second, a focalization of the su...
After eleven days of protests, Lenín Moreno’s administration caved in on protesters’ demands and agreed to repeal Decree 883, which eliminated subsidies on low-octane gasoline and diesel. The decree will be replaced by a new piece of legislation to be drafted by a commission incorporating representatives from the government and indigenous leadership (CONAIE). Nonetheless, fuel prices will be reverted until the new decree is finalized.
Few details on the new decree’s contents have been made available, but early statements point towards a focalization of the subsidies. We regard the temporary reversal of fuel p...
On October 2, President Lenín Moreno announced a series of economic measures designed to support compliance with IMF agreement fiscal targets without requiring an increase to the VAT rate. The announcement included an elimination of the subsidy to low octane ("extra") and diesel fuels, labor market flexibilization and cuts to public workers benefits.
The cut to subsidies was the measure that generated the most backlash. As the government withdrew the subsidy, consumer prices for diesel rose 110.2% while extra fuel rose 24.3%, precipitating anti-austerity protests, which began on October 3 and have quickly devolved in...
On October 1st, in a radio and television broadcast, President Lenín Moreno announced the legal reforms that will be presented in the Assembly for approval. From this moment, the Assembly has up to one month to discuss the proposed reforms.
As we said in our "Country Report: Hanging in the Balance", in his path to reduce fiscal imbalance, Moreno chose to eliminate subsidies for diesel and low octane gasoline while leaving VAT unchanged at 12%.
Moreno also said the tax overhaul bill that he would send to the National Assembly includes a tax reduction that seeks " boosting economic growth and employment.&rdq...
On September 24, Finance Minister Richard Martinez announced through his twitter account the issuance of dollar-denominated 5 and 10-year bonds. The USD 2 bn issuance was placed in two parts, one of USD 600mn due in 2025 with a yield of 7.875% and the other of USD 1.4 bn due in 2030 with a yield of 9.5%.
This is Ecuador’s third bond issuance of the year. On January 28 Ecuador placed USD 1 bn in 10-year 10.75% bonds and then, on June 10, the government re-taped the 2029 bond with a 9.05% yield and placed USD 1,125mn to buy back USD 1,175 mn in bonds due on March 2020.
In 2019 budget was projected a USD 1,750mn ...
On September 11, the president of the National Assembly, César Litardo, said that in two weeks the president, Lenín Moreno, will send the tax reform draft to the Legislative body.
Since the end of the vacancy period of the Legislative Assembly on August 23, it is expected that the government presents the tax and labor reforms drafts, given the agreement that Ecuador has with the IMF. However, to date the Assembly has not yet received the drafts.
There have being expectation around the tax reform, due to the financial package signed with the IMF and other multilateral that calls for Ecuador to increase its tax-rela...