After thriving during the rally in energy prices, Trinidad and Tobago faces a deceleration in its economy and high inflation.

The political picture is stable after the current PM was reelected as the leader of the ruling party. Presidential elections are scheduled for January 23.

The fiscal position will slightly deteriorate according to our estimates, with a budget deficit of 2.5% of the GDP and a primary surplus of only 0.1% of the GDP.

Although financing sources are not detailed in the budget, the country has space to rely on HSF withdrawals or its international reserves. Additionally, T&T enjoys market access if r...

Given the high demand for natural gas and LNG from the EU and other markets, Trinidad and Tobago has a window of opportunity to boost both output and exports.

The country has 4.2 bcm per day in installed capacity to process LNG, but current natural gas output stands at 2.8 bcm as of August.

In late 2020 a liquefaction train in the Atlantic LNG company had to be shut down because of the lack of enough natural gas to keep it running.

The government relies on new licensing rounds as it hopes to stabilize and hopefully boost natural gas output, and also intends to buy Venezuelan gas to increase LNG exports.

Neither opti...

Trinidad and Tobago managed to reduce its fiscal deficit from 8.2% of the GDP in FY 2021 to 1.3% in FY 2022, thanks to higher oil prices.

2023 Budget Statement aims to bring it down to 0.8% of the GDP in FY 2023, introducing several tax measures and relying on an optimistic oil price forecast of USD 92 per barrel.

We expect a fiscal deficit of 2.0% of the GDP and a primary surplus of 0.8%.

While there is no greater detail about gross financing needs, if required, we believe that authorities will rely on domestic debt and the Heritage Stabilization Fund.

HOLD: Liquidity and solvency indicators are mostly positive but...

Lower oil prices have hit investments in the sector, which alongside the natural decline of maturing oil fields have caused a decrease in oil and natural gas output.

The biggest attractiveness of the country is its stable political environment and its long trajectory in the global market.

There are several projects in the works that would increase oil output by 43.5-55.0 tbd and natural gas production by 3,620-4,000 mmcf.

Nevertheless, a reform of the fiscal scheme that would encourage further investment in the sector remains pending.

HOLD: TRITOB underperformed this month, but liquidity indicators remain positive i...

After reporting a considerable contraction in its economy and a higher fiscal deficit, Trinidad and Tobago will enjoy the benefits resulting from the global rally in oil prices.

The government is stable, and while there have been some protests against police killings, we do not expect major changes in the political landscape.

We believe that the fiscal deficit will decrease from 8.2% of the GDP in the previous fiscal year to 4.6%, driven by the windfall in the energy sector.

Likewise, the government announced that the debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen from 77% to 72% and will keep declining until year-end.

We estimate th...

We compare Trinidad & Tobago against Bolivia and Jamaica, to analyze how their credits have performed in the recent EM selloff. 

TRITOB is rated a BB+, four steps above its peers, with better solvency and liquidity indicators. 

We expect a real GDP growth (6.1%) in 2022 after six years of recession. 

The yield (6.5%) does not make for an attractive risk/reward proposition. We maintain our HOLD rating for TRITOB. 

As a commodity-producing country, Trinidad and Tobago’s GDP is heavily dependent on the energy sector’s performance.

As of the third quarter of 2021, the GDP was showing promising signs of recovery, nevertheless, it will be insufficient to reach its pre-pandemic levels.

The oil and natural gas production reported a slight recovery; however, we expect output levels to remain unchanged throughout the year.

Considering that assumption, alongside a modest recovery from the non-energy sectors, we expect that the GDP will grow by 6.1% in 2022.

The high debt/GDP ratio after the pandemic and low GDP growth rate ...

Despite being one the oldest oil producers in the world, Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector has been reporting downward production trends.

Oil output stands at around barely 60 thousand barrels per day.

Natural gas production is still recovering from a sharp drop during the pandemic, and it is still behind the 2022 budget goal of 3,300 mmcf per day.

The Energy Minister said that the country could be one of the countries that could relieve pressure in European markets because of the energy crisis set by the Russian war.

On June 28 the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago published the Monetary Policy Report . According to the report, inflation has remained low and stable, within the  target range. Year on year inflation reached to 1.2% in May. The exchange rate has also remained stable in the last months. The nominal weighted exchange rate was USD 1 = TTD 6.7819 in May. This is a minimum depreciation respect to USD 1 = TTD 6.7813 at the end of November 2018, date of the previous report. This stability is the consequence of a greater inflow of foreign currency to commercial banks, especially by the energy sector.

A Reuters report quoted sources as saying that Trinidad Petroleum Holding Ltd (TPH) had obtained loans that are secured by oil reserves to facilitate the payment of the PETRTT bond 9 3/4 08/14/19, whose maturity reaches USD 850 million and must be canceled in August.

According to the report, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, the Panamanian Bank of Commerce, the Latin American Bank of Foreign Trade (Bladex), First Citizens Bank and Ansa Merchants Bank are organizing approximately USD 1.2 to USD 1.4 billion in loans.

The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago predicts a boost in its economy in 2019, due to the early start of the Angelin gas platform during the first quarter, and the other energy projects that are in progress. In its latest economic bulletin, the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (BCTT) mentioned that the new developments will complement the boost to the energy sector of the Juniper field.

The Central Bank reported that natural gas production increased by 1% in the third quarter of 2018. However, they mention that the production of natural gas liquids is being affected by the production of increasingly "dry" natural gas ....

Trinidad and Tobago projects that gas production will reach 3.9 million cubic feet per day this year, a little more than last year.

The Prime Minister, Dr. Keith Rowley, during the Conference and Energy Trade Fair 2019 organized by the Chamber of Energy of Trinidad and Tobago, said: "In Trinidad and Tobago, gas production is on the rise. Going from 3,200 million cubic feet per day in 2017 to 3,600 million cubic feet in 2018 and is expected to increase to 3,900 million cubic feet per day by 2019 as the new production goes on line "

Petrotrin recently transferred USD 50 million to commercial banks to fulfill its commitment to pay all former non-permanent workers, outstanding payments for the period 2011-2018. Some 2,069 individuals will benefit from the payment, the company said in a statement.

Trinidad Petroleum Holdings Limited (TPHL) offered Oil OWTU an exclusive period to prepare its offer for the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery. TPHL said it offered Patriotic an exclusivity period of three weeks while it begins the process of leasing / selling the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery.

Trinidad had a 2018 marked by the closure of its state oil company, which represented a crisis in the national energy sector. The restructuring of Petrotrin was full of controversy, as an agreement could not be reached between the government and the Oil Field Workers Union (OWTU). The conclusion was more than 5,000 workers unemployed directly and a whole community insecure about the future of the oil company.

Although the change in privatization of state enterprises can be positively evaluated, the oil sector is very important for the country, since it represents around 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The outlook indicates that o...

The refining operations at state oil company Petrotrin officially came to an end on November 30. Energy Minister Franklin Khan confirmed that all plants have been closed safely and all hydrocarbons have been eliminated.

USD 2.7 billion was the total amount disbursed to pay off debts with workers, in order to terminate the employment relationship as well as other additional benefits. The payments included USD 1.8 billion in termination packages; USD 201 million for exceptional vacations; USD 150 million for medical and other benefits; and USD 55 million in payments for pending promotions.

The prime minister, Dr. Keith Rowley, le...

The Monetary Policy Report was published by the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago on November 15. Inflation has remained within the desired goal, in year-on-year terms, inflation stood at 1.2% in October. The exchange rate has also remained stable in these months.

Just two days ago, on November 21, the Trinidadian dollar showed a notable appreciation, going from 6.74 TTD / USD to 6.65 TTD / USD, which means a 1.4% decrease in the exchange rate . This represents the highest purchasing power reached by the Trinidadian currency in the last 2 years.

In general, the performance of the Trinidadian economy during 2018 is evaluated p...

November 30 is the date set for the closure of state oil company Petrotrin. The company will be replaced by a new company called Trinidad Petroleum Holding Company Limited and there will be four subsidiaries. The first subsidiary will be Petrotrin, which will focus on inherited issues that will remain on the table for some years. The second subsidiary Heritage Petroleum Company Limited will focus on Exploration and Production, the third subsidiary, Paria Fuel Trading Company Limited, which will pay attention to commercial and marketing activities, while the fourth company will be Guaracara Refining Company.

Petrotrin closed its refin...