Country UpdateMarch 05, 2021
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Market Pricesghana sovereign
|GHANA 9 1/4 09/15/22||106.95||107.45||4.30||-29||+1||2022-09-15|
|GHANA 9 1/4 09/15/22||106.90||107.40||4.32||-24||-9||2022-09-15|
|GHANA 7 7/8 08/07/23||110.00||110.50||3.40||310||+7||2023-08-07|
|GHANA 7 7/8 08/07/23||109.80||110.30||3.49||318||+8||2023-08-07|
|GHANA 8 1/8 01/18/26||112.45||112.95||5.13||365||+11||2026-01-18|
|GHANA 8 1/8 01/18/26||112.55||113.05||5.12||363||+12||2026-01-18|
|GHANA 6 3/8 02/11/27||102.45||102.95||5.82||492||+12||2027-02-11|
|GHANA 6 3/8 02/11/27||102.50||103.00||5.82||491||+10||2027-02-11|
|GHANA 7 7/8 03/26/27||108.50||109.00||6.12||496||+10||2027-03-26|
|GHANA 7 7/8 03/26/27||108.45||108.95||6.13||497||+10||2027-03-26|
|GHANA 7 5/8 05/16/29||104.10||104.60||6.92||567||+7||2029-05-16|
|GHANA 7 5/8 05/16/29||103.90||104.40||6.95||570||+10||2029-05-16|
|GHANA 10 3/4 10/14/30||129.75||130.25||6.50||478||+10||2030-10-14|
|GHANA 8 1/8 03/26/32||101.90||102.40||7.83||637||+15||2032-03-26|
|GHANA 8 1/8 03/26/32||102.00||102.50||7.82||635||+12||2032-04-26|
|GHANA 7 7/8 02/11/35||98.05||98.55||8.08||649||+13||2035-02-11|
|GHANA 7 7/8 02/11/35||98.10||98.60||8.08||649||+13||2035-02-11|
|GHANA 8.627 06/16/49||97.15||97.65||8.88||711||+11||2049-06-16|
|GHANA 8.627 06/16/49||97.15||97.65||8.88||710||+10||2049-06-16|
|GHANA 8.95 03/26/51||98.30||98.80||9.09||732||+11||2051-03-26|
|GHANA 8.95 03/26/51||98.10||98.60||9.11||734||+11||2051-03-26|
|GHANA 8 3/4 03/11/61||96.00||96.50||9.10||733||+12||2061-03-11|
|GHANA 8 3/4 03/11/61||96.05||96.55||9.10||732||+11||2061-03-11|
Market Mapghana sovereign
Ghana’s average oil production was 201 TBD in 2020, a 0.1% YoY increase.
Oil and gas production accounted for 21.1% of industrial output and 8% of total GDP in 2020.
Oil is the second single export item of the country, only surpassed by gold.
In November 2020, the G20 countries and the Paris Club agreed on a common framework to deal with LICs with debt problems
The common framework seeks to provide more comprehensive support that goes beyond the pandemic shock
The key differences with the DSSI are that it has no time limitations, and requires both private sector involvement and IMF engagement
Incumbent President Akufo-Addo got reelected last year, but the electoral event is under analysis, as a challenge to the results introduced by the opposition is being reviewed by the Supreme Court.
Parliament composition is also on hold pending the challenge decision, but if results are confirmed, Akufo-Addo will deal with a hung parliament on his second term.
We expect the overall fiscal deficit to stand at -8.6% in 2020, improving in 2021 to -5.7%.
Ghana managed to keep its streak of economic growth. We estimate a real GDP variation of 0.6% in 2020, which will accelerate to 3.6% in 2021.
We maintain our HOLD on Gh...
Emerging markets faced massive capital flight as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.
However, there has been debate as to whether the severe initial shock was primarily the result of an interruption in liquidity flows and not the deterioration of macroeconomic variables.
Growth in emerging economies may have taken a permanent hit but, at the same time, emerging markets could become more attractive to those hunting for yield.
We believe that the deepness of the impact of the pandemic on EMs can be quantified.
On December 7, incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo from the New Patriotic Party, was re-elected in the first round with 51.3% of the votes.
The election had a high turnout, with 78.9% of the registered citizen casting their votes.
For the first time an elected president will face a hung parliament, as the New Patriotic Party and the National Democratic Congress won 137 seats each, with the remaining one going to an independent candidate.
Opposition Candidate John Mahama rejected the result and will challenge them at the Supreme Court.
Despite fears of high bond debt, our recommendation is HOLD Ghana's debt.
General elections will be held on December 7, 2020, to elect a new president and Parliament.
Ghana’s main opposition party has nominated former president John Mahama to challenge the incumbent, President Nana Akufo-Addo.
A survey by the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana has predicted a victory for President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo with 51.7% of the votes.
GHANA 32 traded at 101.99 cents on the dollar on Monday, a significant increase of 11.2% in the last month. Meanwhile its YTM fell 150 bps to close at 7.85%.
Pressure grows on China, as one of the world's main creditors, to enter the DSSI without restrictions
The terms of China's agreements with emerging or frontier nations are extremely aggressive compared to members of the Paris Club
One issue to keep an eye on is the participation of Chinese state banks in the renegotiations, as these entities hold about 75% of the country's total debt
Chinese authorities have spoken with 20 countries about the DSSI, and it has approved relief for an amount close to USD 3 bn for 10 countries
Angola and Zambia are the countries that most urgently need to address a restructu...
November’s inflation stood at 0.7%. With this result, y-o-y inflation continued accelerating and reached 8.5%, 0.8 percentage points compared to October y-o-y inflation (7.7%). This is the first time since the statistics institute changed base year that inflation is above the central bank's average target (8%, +/-2%).
As of August, the Ghana Institute of Statistics updated the basket of goods with which the Consumer Price Index is calculated, from 267 to 307 goods, and changed base year from 2012 to 2018. Likewise, data collection points went from 42 to 44.
Despite the November’s rise, looking back it seems like...
According to the debt issuance calendar published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, the government will issue GHS 10.3 bn (USD 1.8 bn or 3% of GDP) before the end of 2019. Out of this amount, GHS 8.8 bn (USD 1.6 bn) would be used to roll-over maturities, while will serve for general government financing.
As part of a memorandum signed between the two nations last year, China will finance USD 2 bn in rail, road and bridge networks, and in return, China will be granted access to 5% of Ghana's bauxite reserves, which are partly located at the tropical rainforest of Upper Guinea in West Africa.
The ore will be mined in part of the Atewa forest reserve, which is the source of three major rivers (Ayensu, Densu and Birim) that provide water to five million people. For this reason, conservationists and water experts have spoken against the agreement, since the risk of water pollution is high.
On the other hand, Ghana’s increa...
On November 13, the Minister of Finance, Ken Ofori-Atta, submitted the 2020 Draft Budget and the Government's Economic Policies to Parliament. This is the first budget of the current administration in which it will not be subject to the restrictions of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In April 2019, a four-years financing program with the IMF ended. The program aimed to reduce the fiscal gap and restore debt sustainability. On its last visit, at the beginning of October, an IMF mission recommended maintaining fiscal discipline in the period prior to the December 2020 general elections.
The clousure of Nigeria’s land borders with Benin, to stop the smuggling of goods such as rice, used cars, and gasoline, has had adverse effects in Ghana. Despite not sharing a land border, the overall trade between the two nations accounted for USD 240 mn in 2018. The Nigerian authorities has stopped Ghanaian traders who have had their goods locked up at the borders after Nigeria made the decision on August 21. Tensions have arosen after Nigeria’s government announced on November 3 the extension of the closure until January 2020.
According to Ghana’s Minister of Information, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, both Ghana and Nige...
The IMF mission, led by Carlo Sdralevich, visited Accra from September 30 to October 11 to conduct discussions on the 2019 Article IV Consultation. On October 24, the Fund said in a press release that Ghana's economic outlook is favorable. Overall, Ghana's growth is backed by prudent economic policies, strong extractive industry activity and a safer banking system.
On October 7, Springfield Exploration and Production Limited (SEP) began drilling in deep waters off the coast of Ghana. The company hired the Stena Forth charter to drill two wells in the area called West Cape Three Points Block 2 (WCTP2). The block host an important oil and gas potential. WCTP2 is exceptionally well located between the fields Jubilee (total proven reserves are around 370 million barrels) and Sankofa (204 million barrels) and is immediately north of the Hess' Pecan, Hickory, Almond, Paradise and Beech discoveries.
According to the Central Bank figures, the total public debt rose to GHS 205.5 bn (USD 39.1 bn) from GHS 159.7 bn (USD 34 bn) in July 2018. The external public debt stood at USD 20.4 bn (31% of GDP) in July, while the domestic public debt stood at USD 18.7 bn (28.4% of GDP).
According to Central Bank’s latest data, the economy grew by 5.7% in the second quarter of 2019, maintaining a steady pace compared to last year, when it grew 5.4% in the same period. Meanwhile, Fx rate has depreciated faster, at 9.2% year-to-date compared to a 7.6% registered in the same period of 2018.
On August 30, Springfield Exploration and Production Limited (SEP), an oil exploration company owned by Ghanaian tycoon Kevin Okyere, is about to become the first independent Ghanaian company to drill in deep water.
Ghana has recently seen its oil sector develop, since explotation began in 2010. Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta recently indicated that production will increase from 200 thousand barrels per day (kbd) this year to 420 kbd in 2023.
On August 22, Ghana issued GHS 162.1 mn (USD 30 mn) of 20-year local currency bonds with a 20.2% yield. This amount was well below its goal of raising GHS 450 mn (USD 83 mn). Investors were not interested given foreign exchange risk and distrust in the country's economy in the long term.
On August 13, the Central Bank of Ghana published its semi-annual report on Ghana's oil funds. This report highlighted that the government obtained USD 434.5 million from the sale of oil produced in its three oil fields, as well as other fees and taxes.
Of the total revenue obtained, the central bank revealed that USD 69.8 million was allocated to the Ghana Stabilization Fund and USD 29.9 million to the Ghana Heritage Fund, which means an increase of 12.8% as a whole, compared to the level of the beginning of the year
As we indicated in our previous report, it is estimated that Ghana will record a budget deficit of 4.5% of ...
On July 29, the first debate was held for the mid-year review of the public budget. The Minister of Finance, Ken Ofori-Atta, presented a motion in the House to request parliamentary approval to spend additional GHS 6,370 million (USD 1.182 billion) to support government spending for the rest of the year. Although much of the parliament supported the government's request, a fraction has taken this as a sign of the disruption of public finance conditions. For this reason, this fraction predict Ghana's returning to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ask for a new rescue.